New reforestation maps exclude grasslands to avoid harm

From the newsletter

A new study has redrawn Africa’s place in global reforestation efforts by excluding large areas of savanna and grassland from tree planting initiatives. The research provides the most detailed global maps to date, indicating where reforestation can effectively contribute to climate change mitigation without harming ecosystems or communities.

• Led by the University of the Witwatersrand’s Future Ecosystems for Africa programme, the report identifies 195 million hectares worldwide as having “constrained reforestation potential.” These areas are suitable for restoring tree cover, which would facilitate measurable carbon removal while adhering to environmental and social safeguards.

• In addition to cautioning against tree planting in Africa’s grasslands and savannas, the study highlights the risks faced by communities with insecure land rights. In such areas, reforestation efforts could jeopardise livelihoods and provoke conflicts, especially in regions that are heavily dependent on natural resources for survival.

More details

• According to the authors, many previous reforestation models have overlooked the ecological functions of Africa’s open landscapes, such as grasslands and fire-adapted savannas. Although these areas appear visually expansive, they do not naturally support dense forests. Planting trees in such ecosystems risks degrading biodiversity, altering fire regimes and undermining the very systems that maintain their stability and productivity over time.

• One of the most critical corrections in the new maps is the exclusion of areas with frequent natural fires, defined in the study as at least two non-cropland fires per decade between 2002 and 2022. These fire-prone zones, which are widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, are now excluded from reforestation planning due to their unsuitability for long-term forest growth and their high risk of ecological mismatch.

• The study, led by the University of the Witwatersrand and published in Nature Communications, is part of the Future Ecosystems for Africa programme. It supports the Roadmap for Just Systems Transformations for Africa’s People and Nature, a framework developed in collaboration with African scientists and Conservation International. This roadmap emphasises the importance of aligning restoration work with both ecological realities and social justice principles.

• To avoid unintended harm, the researchers applied three key social safeguards: secure land tenure, high civil and political rights, and low dependence on nature for rural livelihoods. These criteria significantly reduce the amount of land in Africa deemed viable for reforestation, while also highlighting the necessity of protecting communities from displacement or loss of access to critical resources such as fuel, grazing, and food.

• The study confirms that while Africa holds a large share of the 195 million hectares identified globally for potential reforestation, the application of these safeguards greatly reduces the feasible area. For instance, when limited to areas with secure land rights, the global area shrinks to 116 million hectares. Similarly, zones with high social vulnerability are excluded to prevent conflicts over livelihoods during restoration planning. If the full 195 million hectares were reforested globally, the study estimates a potential removal of 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually over a 30-year period.

• Within Africa, the most promising restoration zones are those adjacent to existing forests, where natural regeneration is feasible and biodiversity gains are more certain. The researchers urge African institutions to take the lead in shaping restoration priorities. Local context, ecological knowledge, and governance conditions must guide implementation. The findings represent a shift from global targets towards grounded strategies that recognise Africa’s distinct ecosystems and land rights landscape.

Our take

• This new report dismantles the “plant trees everywhere” myth and forces a shift to smarter, evidence-based reforestation. For African policymakers, it sets clear ecological boundaries for restoration and embeds social safeguards like land rights and rural livelihoods. That means restoration strategies can no longer be copy-pasted from elsewhere. 

• This study gives Africa the scientific footing to reject harmful external targets and design restoration policies rooted in its own landscapes. It reframes success from counting trees to restoring ecosystems without sidelining people. In a crowded policy space, this is clarity with teeth.